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22
Oct
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8
Jan
Miami Art Deco Franchise Conversion: Wyndham's 82-Key Registry Collection Tests Independent Hotel Repositioning in 2025
I
January 8, 2026

Improvement just to offset brand costs before renovation capex, with IRR hurdles reaching 14-16% when incorporating 18-24 month renovation timelines and lost revenue during repositioning. Soft brand platforms now encompass over 1,800 properties globally (up 23% since 2023), delivering access...

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8
Jan
HVS Canadian Hotel Valuation Index: 19-Market Analysis Tests 2025 Gateway Pricing Dispersion
I
January 8, 2026

Markets Institutional allocators face a $120 billion deployment imperative as portfolios average 10.1% commercial real estate exposure versus 11.3% targets, creating platform-level hospitality opportunities that capture 150-200 basis points of operational alpha through scale efficiencies As of January 2026, the...

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7
Jan
India Hotel ADR Acceleration: 12% Q4 2025 Growth Tests 525bps Emerging Market Premium
I
January 7, 2026

EBITDA versus 6-7x public norms, creating arbitrage opportunities for patient capital. Premium hotel supply in India is projected to grow at 5-6% CAGR through 2027-28 while demand expands at 8-10%, creating a 200-400bps divergence that enables pricing power compounding ahead...

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6
Jan
Atlanta's Candler Hotel Refinancing: JLL Structures Debt Reset Amid 217bps Fixed Income Spread Volatility
I
January 6, 2026

Deployment concentrated in non-cyclical sectors, imposing structural 150-200bps hospitality premiums despite luxury gateway DSCR ratios exceeding 1.4x, a penalty our BMRI framework suggests overprices stabilized cash flow risk. As of Q4 2025, hotel refinancing pressure intensified across gateway markets as...

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6
Jan
Trinity's Barcelona Lifestyle Hotel Expansion Tests 385bps Urban Yield Floor in Multi-Segment European Platform
I
January 6, 2026

Cap rate compression masks 220-525bps vehicle-level mispricing as buyers underwrite renovation upside rather than stabilized NOI, creating structural tension between reported cap rates and operational yields that lifestyle positioning seeks to exploit As of December 2025, Trinity Investments' acquisition of...

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5
Jan
HVS Canadian Hotel Valuation Index: 19-Market Cap Rate Analysis Tests 2025 Gateway Pricing
I
January 5, 2026

Cap rates, representing structural arbitrage opportunities for allocators who understand liquidity preference versus fundamental pricing Income capitalization models and transaction comps have diverged to historic extremes, with sellers anchoring to terminal values while buyers discount by 200-300bps for execution risk,...

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1
Jan
Waterford-Maverick Hotel Consolidation: 50-Property Eastern U.S. Platform Tests Mid-Market Operating Leverage in 2026
I
January 1, 2026

Expansion in late 2025 while national growth forecasts remain sub-1%, positioning Waterford-Maverick's Eastern corridor concentration to capture 2026 FIFA World Cup spillover demand through platform-level pricing optimization unavailable to single-asset operators As of January 2026, the 50-property Waterford-Maverick consolidation crystallizes...

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31
Dec
CDL's £280M London-Osaka Swap: 315bps Cross-Border Hotel Yield Arbitrage Tests Q4 2025 Rotation
I
December 31, 2025

Creating net yield pickup exceeding 250bps after currency hedging costs Public hotel REITs execute strategic capital rotation by disposing select-service assets at 6.5% cap rates while repurchasing equity at 9.5% implied yields, exploiting 300bps valuation gaps between private transaction pricing...

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30
Dec
Global Hotel Fixed Income Dislocation: 385bps APAC-EMEA Spread Tests Q1 2026 Refinancing Thesis
I
December 30, 2025

Private market transactions (6.5% cap) on identical cash flow streams CMBS issuance shows weighted average LTV ratios of 91.4% on select branded assets with 1.36x-1.59x DSCR, positioning mezzanine and B-note investors to capture equity-like returns through the 2025-2026 refinancing cycle...

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30
Dec
Park Hotels' $198M Five-Asset Exit: 315bps Q1 2026 Non-Core Discount Tests Portfolio Optimization Thesis
I
December 30, 2025

Like Park Hotels' $198M five-asset exit and Host Hotels' $1B+ cumulative sales since 2022 represent capital reallocation arbitrage, pruning 6.5% cap rate secondary assets to fund 8-12% unlevered ROI reinvestment in flagship properties while maintaining Net Debt/EBITDAre below 3x As...

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29
Dec
U.S. Hotel Investment Outlook 2026: Gateway Cap Rates Expand 202bps as Institutional Capital Targets Operational Alpha
I
December 29, 2025

Hotel investment volumes will cross $13.3 billion in 2026, with institutional strategies bifurcating into core-plus gateway plays at 4.2-4.7% cap rates versus value-add secondary market deployments targeting 6.5-8.0% unlevered IRRs through operational alpha As of December 2025, U.S. commercial real...

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29
Dec
Fixed Income Pressure vs Hotel Cash Flows: 217bps Q1 2026 Debt Service Coverage Delta
I
December 29, 2025

Public market pricing and intrinsic asset value for all-cash acquirers The fixed income dislocation creates bifurcated pricing where CMBS hotel tranches price 150-200bps wider than multifamily debt despite improving property fundamentals, positioning distressed debt and structured credit for superior risk-adjusted...

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29
Dec
Service Properties' $69K Per Key Exit: Five-Hotel Portfolio Tests 315bps Non-Core Discount Thesis
I
December 29, 2025

31.33% discounts despite median implied cap rates compressing 48 basis points year-over-year to 7.7% in Q3 2025, signaling market structure inefficiency rather than fundamental operational deterioration and creating asymmetric risk-reward for public-to-private conversions. When DSCR drops below 1.35x, disposition proceeds...

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29
Dec
SJM's HKD1.75B Macau Hospitality Play: Non-Gaming Hotel Yield Tests 425bps Premium Over APAC REITs
I
December 29, 2025

Despite full-service hotel transaction pricing advancing 5% quarter-over-quarter, with the public-private real estate cap rate spread at 112 basis points, its longest period of divergence on record, signaling structural mispricing rather than fundamental weakness VICI Properties' $300 million mezzanine loan...

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26
Dec
Fixed Income Mismatch: 245bps Hotel Mortgage Spread Tests 2026 Refinancing Capacity in Secondary Markets
I
December 26, 2025

Asset sales over covenant restructuring Trophy assets in gateway markets refinance at spreads 100-150bps tighter than secondary properties, creating bifurcated capital structure where Tier 1 hotels access SOFR+250-300bps while Tier 2/3 properties face SOFR+400-500bps or lose financing entirely As of...

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26
Dec
MNK Global Core's French Hotel Deployment: 315bps Yield Premium Tests Institutional ESG Integration
I
December 26, 2025

Structural mispricing where ESG retrofitting costs are treated as operational headwinds instead of yield-enhancing capital deployment opportunities ESG-driven hotel acquisitions require operational discipline that bridges sustainability mandates with NOI enhancement, as energy efficiency retrofits, water reclamation systems, and waste reduction...

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25
Dec
Maverick-Waterford's 50-Asset RevPAR Mix: Eastern U.S. Portfolio Tests 385bps Secondary Market Premium
I
December 25, 2025

RevPAR deceleration exposes correlated downside risk when macro headwinds hit simultaneously Platform-scale acquisitions reveal valuation bifurcation, with Ryman's $865M JW Marriott Phoenix purchase at 12.7x EBITDA contrasting Host Hotels' 7.4% cap rate Nashville deal, as strategic buyers prioritize AI-integrated experience...

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24
Dec
London-Osaka Hotel Yield Arbitrage: 151bps Cross-Border Spread Tests Q4 2025 Capital Rotation
I
December 24, 2025

Equity accumulation for cross-border allocators U.S. hospitality transaction volumes declined 11.9% annually through Q3 2025 despite 25.1% growth across broader commercial real estate, signaling capital indecision that creates entry points for patient allocators willing to deploy into REIT liquidations and...

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24
Dec
Hilton Union Square's $217K Per Key: San Francisco Hotel Distress Tests 47% Institutional Discount Thesis
I
December 24, 2025

A structural bid-ask recalibration where median implied REIT cap rates fell 48 basis points to 7.7% while small-cap hotel REITs trade at 24% discounts to NAV Gateway market cap rate arbitrage delivers 475 basis points of yield premium for direct...

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23
Dec
Fixed Income Disconnect: 217bps Hotel Mortgage Spread Tests U.S. Portfolio Refinancing Capacity 2026
I
December 23, 2025

7.03% in April 2025 despite stable operational performance Public hotel REITs trade at 6x forward FFO with 7.7% implied cap rates while private market spreads suggest persistent credit skepticism, creating tactical opportunities in REIT debt at 5-6% yields and distressed...

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23
Dec
India Hotel Rate Power: 12% ADR Growth Tests 525bps Premium Over Emerging APAC Markets in Q4 2025
I
December 23, 2025

Rates compressed to 7.7% while small-cap vehicles trade at 24% NAV discounts versus 6.7% for large-caps, a 1,730-basis-point bifurcation unrelated to asset quality that patient capital can exploit through strategic accumulation As of December 2025, India's hotel sector has crystallized...

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22
Dec
Miami Art Deco Hotel Franchise Premium: Wyndham's 82-Key Registry Deal Tests 425bps ADR Thesis
I
December 22, 2025

Public vehicles Median implied cap rates for hotel REITs compressed 48bps year-over-year to 7.7% in Q3 2025, yet small-cap vehicles languish at 24% NAV discounts while Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt-flagged properties command 9-10x EBITDA in private markets As of December...

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22
Dec
Fixed Income Disconnect: 375bps Hotel Debt Premium Tests 2026 Refinancing Thesis
I
December 22, 2025

Or debt market discipline forces NAV-destructive asset sales Investment-grade platforms refinance at SOFR + 150bps while non-rated hotel portfolios face SOFR + 525bps, a 375bps spread wider than any point since 2009 that transforms routine refinancing into existential capital structure...

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22
Dec
Barcelona Lifestyle Hotel Repricing: Trinity's 240-Key Hoxton Deal Tests 385bps Urban Yield Floor
I
December 22, 2025

Commanding 9-10x EBITDA premiums versus U.S. hotel REITs trading at 6x forward FFO, creating a 385bps yield gap exploitable by sophisticated capital. Urban gateway hotel investment volumes projected to grow 15-25% YoY in 2026 as the $48 billion CMBS maturity...

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19
Dec
Newbond's Asset Management Pivot: 47% IRR Delta Tests Institutional Hotel Operating Model Evolution
I
December 19, 2025

Penalties over five-year holds Apple Hospitality REIT's disciplined capital recycling, closing $117M in acquisitions while divesting $63M in non-core assets and lifting 2024 net income 20.6%, validates portfolio curation over scale, with strategic divestiture of high-capex properties improving risk-adjusted returns...

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19
Dec
London's £396K Per Key CDL Deal: Cross-Border Capital Tests 315bps Kensington Yield Floor in Q4 2025
I
December 19, 2025

Pricing rather than operational fundamentals Foreign direct investment into U.S. hospitality held steady YoY in 2025 as strategic transactions rose 7%, signaling patient cross-border capital exploits illiquidity premiums that domestic buyers under quarterly scrutiny cannot justify As of December 2025,...

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18
Dec
Osaka-Blackstone JPY14B Deal: 245bps Non-Gaming Premium Tests Asia Hotel Repricing Thesis
I
December 18, 2025

Investment reached $4.7 billion in H1 2025 with cross-border M&A surging 54% year-over-year, yet public REITs trade at 38% discounts to NAV, enabling sophisticated allocators to extract 200-300bps excess returns through privatization and selective consolidation strategies As of December 2025,...

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18
Dec
U.S. Hotel Management Platforms: 50-Asset Mid-Market Portfolio Tests 217bps Revenue Mix Delta
I
December 18, 2025

Room revenue missing projections by 140bps Global hotel operator M&A surged 115% year-over-year in Q3 2025 as publicly traded hotel REITs trading at 35-40% discounts to NAV created privatization arbitrage opportunities for platforms positioned to extract the 217bps revenue premium...

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17
Dec
Service Properties Trust's $47M Five-Hotel Exit: 679-Key Portfolio Tests 315bps Non-Core Discount in Q4 2025
I
December 17, 2025

As evidenced by Park Hotels' $198M exit of eight assets at 43x Hotel EBITDA and DiamondRock's preference for share buybacks over 7-9% cap rate acquisitions The 315-basis-point spread between REIT trading levels and privatization premiums (Sotherly Hotels' 152.7% buyout premium)...

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17
Dec
Hong Kong Gaming REIT Convergence: SJM's HKD1.75B Hotel Deal Tests 385bps Macau Yield Delta
I
December 17, 2025

Deals commanding 152.7% median premiums and 9.3x Hotel EBITDA multiples as of December 2025 Cross-border hotel M&A accelerated 54% year-over-year through October 2025, with small-cap hotel REITs trading at 24.19% discounts to NAV and micro-caps at 31.33% discounts, enabling sophisticated...

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16
Dec
Wellness Hotel Revenue Mix: 12,000-Asset Study Shows 280bps Non-Room Stability Premium in Q4 2025
I
December 16, 2025

EBITDA multiples, a 152.7% premium over traditional hotel acquisitions, as revenue diversification provides structural downside protection worth 220-525 basis points during market dislocations As of Q4 2025, wellness-integrated hotels demonstrate a 280-basis-point profit stability advantage over traditional lodging models, according...

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16
Dec
MEA Hotel AI Integration: ESG-Driven Revenue Enhancement Tests 425bps Technology Premium in Q4 2025
I
December 16, 2025

Of November 2025 offer dual arbitrage opportunities for portfolios with embedded ESG infrastructure, positioning for either privatization at compressed cap rates or public market re-rating as compliance mandates expand As of Q4 2025, hotel operators deploying integrated AI revenue management...

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15
Dec
Global Hotel REIT Refinancing Wave: Q4 2025 Signals 217bps Spread Compression Across Asia-Europe Portfolios
I
December 15, 2025

Budget, signaling operational resilience that public markets have failed to price Sovereign and institutional capital is reshaping hotel REIT capital structures through minority equity infusions paired with debt reduction mandates, exemplified by GIC's April 2025 SAMHI Hotels joint venture, offering...

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15
Dec
Park Hotels' $198M Non-Core Exit: Q1 2026 Disposition Tests 245bps Portfolio Optimization Premium
I
December 15, 2025

Growth in current market conditions The 245bps spread between REIT disposal economics (6.5% cap) and private market implied cap rates (7.7%) reveals a structural arbitrage opportunity for allocators focused on event-driven strategies in Q1 2026 As of Q1 2026, Park...

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12
Dec
India Hotel ADR Growth: 10-12% Q4 2025 Rate Power Signals 525bps Operating Leverage Premium Over Gateway Markets
I
December 12, 2025

Points annually Cross-border hotel M&A accelerated 54% year-over-year through October 2025, with transaction-level valuations like Le Pavillon's 2.6% cap rate (27.2x Hotel EBITDA) revealing 300-525bps premiums that sophisticated allocators capture through privatization strategies bypassing public market structural drag As of...

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12
Dec
San Francisco's $408M Hotel Distress: 47% Per-Key Discount Tests Gateway Market Floor in Q4 2025
I
December 12, 2025

At 9.3x Hotel EBITDA for control positions, signaling structural vehicle-level mispricing rather than operational distress Cross-border hotel M&A accelerated 54% year-over-year as of October 2025, creating a 575-basis-point spread between U.S. gateway hotel cap rates (4.2%) and emerging market transactions...

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12
Dec
London Kensington Hotel Reset: CDL's £280M Play Tests £396K Per Key Institutional Benchmark in Q4 2025
I
December 12, 2025

Allocators exploit through conversion strategies PwC projects 8.5% ADR growth in 2026 driven by supply constraints, while recent M&A pricing values unified management platforms at a 315bps operational premium, quantifying the margin expansion potential that scale-advantaged operators extract in supply-constrained...

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10
Dec
U.S. Wellness Hotel Operating Leverage: 12,000-Property Study Shows 315bps Non-Room Revenue Stability
I
December 10, 2025

9-10%, with the 525-basis-point spread enabling M&A-driven consolidation plays that exploit public REIT vehicle inefficiencies rather than operational deficiencies As of December 2025, U.S. wellness hotels delivered Total Revenue per Occupied Room (TRevPOR) of $561 in H1 2025, a 67.5%...

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9
Dec
Osaka Hotel Wellness Integration: JPY14B Blackstone Deal Tests 245bps Revenue Diversification Premium
I
December 9, 2025

38.9% NAV discounts As gateway market hotel cap rates compressed to 4.2% in 2025, portfolios with 35%+ non-room revenue demonstrated 18-22% lower volatility in down cycles, positioning revenue diversification as quantifiable risk mitigation rather than operational buzzword Blackstone's JPY14B Osaka...

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9
Dec
U.S. Hotel REIT Discount Arbitrage: 300bps Spread Signals Structural Mispricing in 2025-2026
I
December 9, 2025

Hotel REITs trade at 6x forward FFO multiples, the lowest across all property sectors, while private transactions command 9-10x EBITDA premiums, positioning catalyst-driven privatization strategies as highest-conviction allocations for 2026 As of December 2025, U.S. hotel REITs trade at structural...

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8
Dec
Saudi PIF's $3.6B Hotel Pipeline: 3,300-Key Portfolio Tests 475bps Emerging Market Premium
I
December 8, 2025

Emerging market premium that reflects sovereign execution risk and regulatory opacity rather than asset quality Cross-border hotel M&A surged 54% YoY as of October 2025, yet full-service transaction volumes grew only 3.4% through Q3 2025, signaling persistent market structure fragility...

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8
Dec
Wellness Hotel Operating Model: 12,000-Property Study Shows 245bps Non-Room Revenue Stability Premium
I
December 8, 2025

Wellness properties generated $334 TRevPAR, more than double the $160 of non-wellness hotels, with leisure revenue per occupied room of $98.31 versus $6.50 for Minor Wellness assets, a 1,412% differential that reduces cash flow volatility and supports higher leverage As...

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5
Dec
U.S. Hotel Management Consolidation: Waterford-Maverick's 50-Asset Integration Tests 315bps Scale Premium
I
December 5, 2025

REITs struggle to monetize Hotel REITs trading at 35.2% discounts to NAV reflect structural mispricing tied to operational leverage gaps rather than asset-level weakness, creating M&A-driven privatization opportunities for allocators with patient capital and integration expertise Waterford Hospitality Group's November...

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5
Dec
Italian Luxury Hotel Pricing Reset: Lecce's €383K Per Key Tests 475bps Secondary Market Yield Floor
I
December 5, 2025

A 75bps premium to London comparables, while public hotel REITs trade at 6.5-8.0% implied yields versus 4.2-5.5% private gateway pricing, creating a 525bps structural spread for patient capital Hotel REIT privatizations accelerated in November 2025 as Sotherly's $425M take-private valued...

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4
Dec
UK Hotel Supply Constraints Drive 8.5% ADR Growth: PwC Signals 2026 Operating Leverage Opportunity
I
December 4, 2025

NOI at 70-80% marginal rates Cross-border hotel M&A accelerated 54% year-over-year as of October 2025, with take-private transactions like Sotherly Hotels at 152.7% premiums validating privatization as the optimal value realization path for assets trapped in public market structural mispricing...

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4
Dec
India Hotel ADR Premium Hits 12%: Q4 2025 Occupancy Tests 525bps Regional Market Thesis
I
December 4, 2025

8.1% YoY median pricing gains versus 4.9% for full-service properties, revealing format-specific value creation opportunities amid structural vehicle-level mispricing Cross-border hotel M&A accelerated 54% year-over-year as of October 2025, yet capital-light platform operators capturing management economics and selective secondary market...

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3
Dec
San Francisco Hotel Portfolio Reset: Newbond's $408M Union Square Play Tests 280bps ADR Premium
I
December 3, 2025

Take-private transactions closed at median 152.7% premiums to trailing equity prices, pricing portfolios at 9.3x Hotel EBITDA and $152,600 per key, while well-maintained assets command 400bps tighter cap rates than capex-intensive properties requiring immediate capital infusion As of December 2025,...

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3
Dec
Macau Gaming REIT Pivot: SJM's HKD1.75B Arc Deal Tests 425bps Hotel Yield Convergence
I
December 3, 2025

Q3 2025 while gaming assets maintain 10.5% yields, signaling either structural mispricing or unpriced regulatory tail risks APAC fundraising volumes surged 130% year-over-year to capture 11% of global real estate capital in Q3 2025, while Singapore REITs offer 6.5% dividend...

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2
Dec
Waterford-Maverick Merger: 50-Property Eastern U.S. Portfolio Tests 217bps Operating Leverage Premium
I
December 2, 2025

Plays, quantifying the value of eliminating principal-agent conflicts as hotel M&A bifurcates into two distinct valuation regimes through 2026 As of November 2025, the Waterford-Maverick merger absorbing 50 Eastern U.S. properties crystallizes a structural shift in hotel M&A pricing dynamics....

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2
Dec
Japan Hotel M&A: Blackstone's JPY14B Osaka Deal Tests Secondary Market Repricing Thesis in Q4 2025
I
December 2, 2025

Execute at 2.2-3.3% cap rates, creating 220-525 basis point vehicle-level mispricing opportunities Secondary market repositioning strategies in Osaka offer 300-400 basis points of excess return as major operators delay new supply until the mid-2030s, creating structural windows for acquisition, renovation,...

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1
Dec
U.S. Hotel Forecast Reset: CoStar's 62.3% Occupancy Signal Tests ADR Resilience in Q4 2025
I
December 1, 2025

Creating a valuation paradox where surface stability masks structural margin compression Cross-border European hotel M&A surged to 64% of total volume in Q3 2025 while direct investment volumes reached $213B globally (up 17% YoY), positioning secondary market assets at 6.75%...

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1
Dec
Wellness Hotel Revenue Diversification: 12,000-Property Study Shows 245bps Profit Stability Premium
I
December 1, 2025

Year hold periods Wellness-integrated F&B operations delivered 245bps profit margin stability in Q3 2025 while outperforming broader market GOP margins by 340-420bps, transforming traditional cost centers into defensive alpha generators independent of cyclical lodging trends As of H1 2025, Major...

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28
Nov
U.S. Hotel Occupancy Reset: 62.3% Rate Signals 280bps ADR Premium in Secondary Markets
I
November 28, 2025

Public-private valuation gaps trading at 35-40% NAV discounts Hotel REIT privatizations commanded 152.7% premiums while public vehicles trade at 6x forward FFO, converging with a $48 billion CMBS maturity wave through 2026 that creates distressed secondary opportunities at 6-7% cap...

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28
Nov
Japan-APAC Hotel Yield Spread: 355bps Nishi-Shinjuku REIT Premium vs Regional Markets in Q4 2025
I
November 28, 2025

That signals vehicle-level mispricing rather than operational risk, creating tactical opportunities for allocators who can pressure management toward privatization Asia-Pacific hotel investment volumes reached $4.7 billion in H1 2025 with cross-border M&A representing 64% of gateway market transactions, yet extended...

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27
Nov
Brussels-Portugal Cross-Border Yield: Pestana's 150-Key Aloft Deal Tests 525bps Premium Thesis in Q4 2025
I
November 27, 2025

To NAV despite owning portfolios at market-clearing cap rates, creating M&A-driven consolidation opportunities for scale-advantaged platforms The spread between secondary market hotel cap rates and gateway trophy assets widened to 475-525 basis points in Q4 2025, with gateway markets trading...

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27
Nov
UK Hotel Forecast 2026: Supply Constraints Drive 315bps Operational Premium vs Continental Markets
I
November 27, 2025

Institutional underwriting UK hotel transaction volumes surged 26% year-over-year in Q3 2025 while REITs trade at 35-40% discounts to NAV, creating a 525bps public-private cap rate dislocation that sophisticated allocators exploit through conversion strategies and platform consolidation plays As of...

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26
Nov
India Hotel RevPAR Divergence: Q3 2025 Performance Dip Signals 525bps Regional Market Recalibration
I
November 26, 2025

Gateway premium for allocators navigating geographic arbitrage Hotel REITs trade at 35.2% discounts to NAV as of November 2025 while private transactions execute at 220-525bps tighter cap rates, exemplified by Sotherly Hotels' 152.7% privatization premium and American Hotel Income Properties'...

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26
Nov
Italian Boutique Hotel Premium: Lecce's €18M Deal Signals €383K Per Key Benchmark in Q4 2025
I
November 26, 2025

Cap rates while peripheral European markets remain anchored at 6-7%, creating tactical arbitrage opportunities for allocators willing to accept jurisdictional complexity Hotel REITs persist at 35-40% discounts to NAV despite privatization transactions harvesting 280+ basis point spreads, exemplified by Sotherly...

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25
Nov
Newbond's $408M San Francisco Portfolio Play: 315bps Cap Rate Recalibration Tests Gateway Thesis
I
November 25, 2025

European M&A surging to 64% of Q3 2025 volume Privatization arbitrage is accelerating as acquirers layer preferred equity at 8.5-11.25% yields behind agency debt, exemplified by Sotherly Hotels' 152.7% premium takeout, enabling capital stack recalibration that eliminates structural REIT discounts...

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25
Nov
Spanish Coastal Hotel Consolidation: Grupotel's €383K Per Key Tests 6.75% Secondary Market Yields
I
November 25, 2025

Liquidity premium that privatization transactions like Sotherly Hotels' 153% take-private premium systematically exploit Secondary market hotel cap rates maintain a persistent 275-basis-point premium over gateway markets (6.75% vs low-4% range), reflecting structural liquidity friction that demands explicit portfolio weighting discipline...

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24
Nov
India Hotel Capital Markets: JLL Leadership Shift Signals 525bps Yield Premium in Q4 2025
I
November 24, 2025

3.8-4.2% while peripheral European markets remain at 6-7%, creating systematic arbitrage opportunities where patient capital can exploit liquidity-driven mispricings Hotel REIT dispositions executed at 7.7% cap rates ($97,000 per key) contrast with 9.9% implied public portfolio yields, a 220-basis-point spread...

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24
Nov
San Francisco Hotel Zeppelin's 8.9% RevPAR Growth Tests 315bps Secondary Market Repricing in Q4 2025
I
November 24, 2025

10x Hotel EBITDA (7.8-8.5% NOI cap rate) with a 152.7% premium, revealing vehicle-level mispricing rather than operational weakness. Hotel transaction volumes rebounded 21% year-over-year in Q4 2025, yet deal structure bifurcation intensified, with gateway luxury cap rates compressing to 3.8-4.2%...

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17
Nov
Daiwa-Fuyo's JPY10.17B Tokyo Exit: Hotel REIT Refinancing Drives 355bps Spread Compression
I
November 17, 2025

Yields), enabling refinancing arbitrage strategies that generate 12-15% IRRs for allocators capable of asset-by-asset recapitalization The convergence of debt yields with cap rates at 6.5% in Q4 2025, combined with the Fed's November 25bps rate cut, positions refinanced portfolios to...

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17
Nov
French Hotel Investment Surge: €383K Per Key Hadhoum Deal Tests 575bps Regional Yield Thesis in 2025
I
November 17, 2025

Discount NAV by 35-40% regardless of asset quality Cross-border European hotel M&A surged to 64% of total volume in Q3 2025, with Ireland capturing €375M at 6.75% cap rates, a 75bps premium to London comparables that quantifies institutional capital's recalibration...

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14
Nov
Asia-Pacific Hotel Capital Rotation: JLL Reports 480bps Secondary Market Premium vs Q3 2025 Gateway Yields
I
November 14, 2025

Equity IRR for patient capital willing to arbitrage vehicle structure mispricings Private equity involvement in one-third of Q3 2025 UK hospitality transactions signals institutional recognition of the REIT discount arbitrage, with American Hotel Income Properties disposing assets at 7.7% cap...

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14
Nov
Bali-Dubai Luxury Resort Convergence: 525bps RevPAR Premium Drives $875M Cross-Market Pipeline
I
November 14, 2025

Hotel capital flows reveal 475bps yield spreads between European gateway cities (3.8-4.2% cap rates) and peripheral markets (6-7%), with Asia Pacific's $7.93B investment volume maintaining 24.9% cross-border participation despite 12.6% volume decline As of Q3 2025, the global leisure hospitality...

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13
Nov
U.S. Hotel RevPAR Downgrade: 62.3% Occupancy Signals 280bps Institutional Repricing Window
I
November 13, 2025

Arbitrage opportunity that our LSD framework quantifies as structural mispricing beyond rational liquidity premiums Summit Hotel Properties' October 2025 asset sales at 4.3% cap rates versus 6x FFO public market valuations signal that privatization strategies can harvest 280bps+ spreads through...

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13
Nov
Nishi-Shinjuku Hotel REIT Deal: JPY10.17B Price Signals 355bps Japan Institutional Recalibration
I
November 13, 2025

Creating a liquidity-driven mispricing window where hospitality yields of 5.2-5.8% now exceed comparable gateway markets globally Institutional capital redeployment exemplified by CapitaLand's 40% Sumitomo-SCCP stake (completed March 2025) signals strategic rotation from lower-yield balance sheet exposure toward higher-margin fee streams...

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12
Nov
San Francisco Hotel Zeppelin Sale: 8.9% RevPAR Growth Drives 315bps Institutional Pricing Reset
I
November 12, 2025

Vehicle friction costs worth 300-400bps annually Global hotel investment reached $213 billion in Q3 2025 (up 17% YoY), yet transaction velocity concentrates in select-service flags and trophy assets while secondary markets remain stranded, creating tactical privatization opportunities for allocators who...

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12
Nov
Lecce's €383K Per Key Benchmark: Italian Boutique Hotels Signal 475bps Yield Premium in Q4 2025
I
November 12, 2025

REIT sectors, creating a 475bps yield premium opportunity for direct asset acquisitions over passive public market exposure Privatization transactions command 150%+ premiums to public trading prices at 9.3x hotel EBITDA versus 6-7x public norms, signaling that the public-private arbitrage window...

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11
Nov
Albania's Tourism Development Agency: $315M Hotel Pipeline Signals 575bps Emerging Market Premium
I
November 11, 2025

200-300bps in round-trip transaction costs U.S. hotel REITs trading at 6x forward FFO, the lowest multiple across REIT sectors, while emerging market hotel M&A targets command 9-10x EBITDA premiums, suggesting optimal portfolio construction blends developed market REITs for re-rating potential...

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11
Nov
Ruby Dublin's €86M Deka Sale: ESR Group Exit Signals 475bps Yield Gap vs Continental Markets
I
November 11, 2025

At 35-40% discounts to NAV, creating tactical arbitrage opportunities where asset-level acquisitions materially improve Bay Adjusted Sharpe ratios versus public REIT exposure Foreign capital flows into Italian hospitality surged 102% YoY to €1.7B in H1 2025, compressing gateway city cap...

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10
Nov
Brussels Hotel M&A Signals: Aloft's 150-Key Sale Drives 525bps Premium in Secondary Markets
I
November 10, 2025

As Bay Macro Risk Index adjustments of up to 400bps compress returns in high-sovereign-risk jurisdictions Hotel REIT privatizations command 150%+ premiums to public trading prices, with Sotherly Hotels acquired at 9.3x 2025E Hotel EBITDA versus 6-7x public REIT multiples, exposing...

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10
Nov
Philippine Tourism Board's $315M Hotel Pipeline: 525bps Yield Premium vs ASEAN Gateway Markets
I
November 10, 2025

When currency and sovereign risks are properly hedged Hotel REIT disposal transactions at 4.3-6.9% cap rates versus public equity valuations implying 9.9% cap rates create 300-550bps arbitrage opportunities, with share repurchases at 35-40% NAV discounts delivering IRRs materially exceeding organic...

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9
Nov
Fuyo-Daiwa Shinjuku Deal: JPY10.17B Hotel REIT Transaction Signals 355bps Tokyo Yield Floor
I
November 9, 2025

Basis point structural arbitrage that privatization captures Sotherly Hotels' October 2025 take-private at 9.3x Hotel EBITDA, a 152.7% premium to trading prices, validates the REIT privatization thesis as financing costs compress 280 basis points year-over-year and institutional buyers exploit vehicle...

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8
Nov
Spanish Coastal Hotel Yield Evolution: 210-Key Grupotel Acquisition Tests 6.25% Floor in Q4 2025
I
November 8, 2025

152.7% premium at 9.3x Hotel EBITDA, reflecting structural vehicle-level mispricing rather than operational weakness Cross-border hotel M&A accelerated 54% year-over-year as of October 2025, creating a 525-basis-point yield differential between public REIT valuations (6.5-8.0% implied cap rates) and private market...

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7
Nov
San Francisco Hotel Recovery: 8.9% RevPAR Growth Drives 325bps Yield Reset in Q4 2025
I
November 7, 2025

$5.7 billion in Q3 2025 while REITs raised $21.3 billion in capital, creating 75-125bps yield premiums for private allocators in bilateral transactions as public vehicles deploy capital at negative spreads to equity cost As of Q3 2025, U.S. hotel investment...

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6
Nov
Airport Hotel Investment Thesis: PAN AM's Premium Lifestyle Model Tests 275bps RevPAR Delta
I
November 6, 2025

Compressed 200bps on double-digit RevPAR growth, signaling opportunities where 18-24 month renovation holds can generate 14-18% unlevered IRRs through margin expansion Park Hotels' 6.6% airport portfolio RevPAR decline contrasts with USD 5.1 billion in Asia-Pacific airport hotel transactions, underscoring that...

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6
Nov
MENA Hotel Investment Surge: US$487B Market Value Drives 385bps Yield Compression by 2032
I
November 6, 2025

Saudi mega-projects versus UAE core-plus assets U.S. hotel REITs trading at 35-40% NAV discounts despite raising $21.3B in Q3 2025 debt capital, creating 280-480bps arbitrage opportunity between 7.3% private market cap rates and 10-12% implied public yields for allocators structuring...

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5
Nov
Asia-Pacific Luxury Resort Exits: JPY10.17B Tokyo Deal Signals 480bps Yield Floor Reset
I
November 5, 2025

Demonstrated by Sotherly Hotels' 152.7% premium take-private at 9.3x Hotel EBITDA Cross-border hotel investment surged 54% YoY in H1 2025, yet 84% of Asia-Pacific capital concentrated in five gateway markets, creating a 300+ basis point yield differential between trophy assets...

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5
Nov
Wyndham Select-Service Portfolio: 217bps Yield Premium Signals U.S. Regional Market Arbitrage in Q4 2025
I
November 5, 2025

23-35% discounts to net asset value despite DSCR ratios exceeding 1.45x and RevPAR growth of 8.3% The 106-basis-point buffer between hospitality interest rates (7.11%) and cap rates (8.17%) creates refinancing flexibility for levered take-privates, while $26 billion in hotel loan...

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4
Nov
Malaysian Hotel Portfolio Exits: RM875M Volume Drives 475bps Yield Reset in Q4 2025
I
November 4, 2025

Performance, signaling liquidity premiums that disconnect valuation from operational fundamentals Cross-border hotel investment surged 54% year-over-year globally with Asia Pacific capturing $15.29 billion (up 118%), while hotel REITs trade at 23-35% discounts to NAV despite private market cap rate compression,...

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4
Nov
Irish Secondary Market Hotels: €340M Regional Portfolio Sales Signal 425bps Yield Premium in H2 2025
I
November 4, 2025

78-82% occupancy metrics, reflecting capital deployment inefficiency rather than operational deterioration €340M in H2 2025 Irish regional portfolio transactions offer 200-300bps excess returns for allocators willing to navigate governance complexity and fragmented ownership structures, with minimal sovereign risk adjustments in...

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3
Nov
Asia-Pacific Hotel Investment Moderation: JLL Reports 315bps Yield Reset Amid Capital Realignment in Q4 2025
I
November 3, 2025

NAV and 6x forward FFO, the lowest multiple across all REIT sectors, signaling structural capital migration from public to private vehicles that commands 150-200bps cap rate compression premiums U.S. REITs raised $21.3 billion in Q3 2025 with debt representing 65.6%...

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3
Nov
Dubai Branded Residence Surge: $875M Pipeline Drives 315bps Premium vs Traditional Luxury Hotels in Q3 2025
I
November 3, 2025

Hotels' October 2025 privatization at 9.3x Hotel EBITDA delivering a 152.7% premium to public market pricing Hotel REITs trade at a 35.5% discount to net asset value in Q4 2025, the steepest of any property type, while private market branded...

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31
Oct
Japan-Fuyo Lease Exit: ¥10.17B Nishi-Shinjuku Deal Tests Hotel REIT Refinancing Thesis
I
October 31, 2025

Hotel investment surged 54% YoY in 2024, yet 84% of Asia-Pacific capital concentrated in five markets, while the Sotherly Hotels privatization at 152.7% premium and 9.3x EBITDA demonstrates value unlocking potential versus 6x public REIT multiples As of October 2025,...

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31
Oct
U.S. Hotel M&A Fragmentation: 30% Portfolio Volume Drop to €3.3B Signals Buyer Reset in H1 2025
I
October 31, 2025

Versus distressed REIT valuations A $48 billion CMBS maturity wave through 2026 forces borrowers to refinance 3-4.5% debt at 6.25-7% rates, compressing DSCR ratios and creating distressed secondary asset opportunities at 6-7% cap rates offering 150-200 basis point premiums over...

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30
Oct
South Korean Hotel Portfolio Exits: ₩875B Volume Signals 385bps Yield Reset in Q4 2025
I
October 30, 2025

Growth Hotel REIT privatizations commanded 152.7% premiums while public vehicles trade at 6x forward FFO, the most discounted property type in real estate, creating tactical entry points for allocators who can navigate vehicle arbitrage mechanics through 2026 South Korea's hotel...

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30
Oct
Portugal's Hotel Market Entry: Pestana's Aloft Brussels Deal Signals 525bps Yield Premium Opportunity in Cross-Border Hospitality Investment
I
October 30, 2025

As evidenced by Sotherly Hotels' October 2025 take-private deal at 9.3x Hotel EBITDA (152.7% premium to trading price) Strategic repositioning opportunities emerged as Marriott acquired citizenM for $355 million ($41,000 per key) while Host Hotels deployed $945 million into trophy...

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29
Oct
Spanish Hotel Portfolio Rotation: Grupotel's 210-Key Conil Acquisition Tests 6.25% Coastal Yield Floor
I
October 29, 2025

A 150-200 basis point arbitrage opportunity for privatization strategies Global hotel operator M&A surged 115% year-over-year in Q3 2025 as debt yields converged with cap rates at 6.5%, making refinancing more attractive than exits for stabilized coastal assets with demonstrable...

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29
Oct
Japanese Hotel REIT Consolidation: Daiwa's ¥10.17B Nishi-Shinjuku Deal Sets 4.8% Yield Floor
I
October 29, 2025

Portfolio expansion without equity dilution Japan's ¥265.3 billion YTD August 2025 hotel transaction volume masks structural bifurcation where Tokyo trophy assets trade at sub-5% yields while secondary markets offer 150-200 basis point premiums, creating tactical value for allocators providing liquidity...

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29
Oct
Italian Hotel Investment Yield Delta: Foreign Capital Drives 102% Volume Surge to €1.7B in H1 2025
I
October 29, 2025

Anchored at 6-7%, revealing a bifurcated pricing structure where liquidity premiums exceed 200-300 basis points. European single-asset transactions reached €7.1 billion in H1 2025, 12% above 2019 levels in real terms, while portfolio deals contracted 30% to €3.3 billion with...

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28
Oct
Bali Luxury Resort Pipeline: 525bps RevPAR Premium Drives $875M Regional Development Surge
I
October 28, 2025

200-300bps valuation arbitrage opportunity for allocators willing to navigate governance complexity Cross-border capital surged 54% year-over-year globally in 2024, driving bifurcated pricing where gateway trophy assets trade at sub-4% yields while secondary markets remain anchored at 6-7% cap rates despite...

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28
Oct
German Hotel Single-Asset Surge: Munich Mandarin Deal Drives 280bps Yield Reset in H1 2025
I
October 28, 2025

Points of spread while maintaining operational quality Hotel REITs trade at 6x forward FFO with 23-35% NAV discounts despite stable occupancy, while single-asset transparency commands governance premiums that diversified portfolios cannot capture, signaling systematic arbitrage opportunities through strategic portfolio unbundling...

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27
Oct
Asia Pacific Secondary Markets: 450bps Hotel Yield Premium vs Gateway Cities in H1 2025
I
October 27, 2025

Gateway compression to 5.8% yields Public hotel REITs delivered negative 13.61% returns through September 2025 despite €1.7 billion Italian portfolio surge (102% YoY), signaling public-private valuation arbitrage where operational control commands 152.7% premiums over passive REIT vehicles, as demonstrated by...

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27
Oct
Polish Hotel Market Arbitrage: 315bps Yield Premium Draws Asian Capital in H2 2025
I
October 27, 2025

Premium, implying 115-165bps of excess return for illiquidity-tolerant allocators CEE market fragmentation, evidenced by Romania's 73% undisclosed transaction rate and 139 tactical acquisitions in H1 2025, creates dual arbitrage: acquire single assets at distressed pricing during liquidity constraints, then aggregate...

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24
Oct
Czech Republic Hotel Transactions Lead CEE: Prague Prime Yields Hit 5.25% in H2 2025
I
October 24, 2025

Our Liquidity Stress Delta framework at 150-250 basis points Cross-border capital deployment into Czech, Polish, and German markets, which account for 68% of total CEE hotel volume, reflects sophisticated portfolio construction prioritizing transparent legal frameworks and stabilized assets offering meaningful...

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24
Oct
Ruby Hotels' €86M Dublin Deal: German Institutional Capital Drives 475bps Cross-Border Yield Arbitrage
I
October 24, 2025

Valuation arbitrage that operating lease structures allow private buyers to exploit through hybrid ownership models unavailable to public vehicles Prime Dublin hotel assets command 6.75% cap rates versus 5.8% in Munich despite operationally comparable RevPAR performance (less than 4% divergence),...

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23
Oct
Petoskey AmericInn Sale: U.S. Secondary Market Hotels See 217bps Yield Premium in Q4 2025
I
October 23, 2025

54% year-over-year in 2024 while hotel REITs delivered negative 13.61% returns through September 2025, revealing a structural disconnect where private capital aggressively targets repositioning opportunities that public vehicles cannot efficiently capture As of October 2025, U.S. hotel transaction dynamics reveal...

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23
Oct
Luxury Resort Investment Thesis: Global Branded Properties Drive 315bps RevPAR Premium in Q4 2025
I
October 23, 2025

2025, creating a tactical arbitrage opportunity where brand-driven NOI stability meets compressed public valuations Luxury resort portfolios featuring Ritz-Carlton, Park Hyatt, or Four Seasons flags command both operational premiums and buyer competition in private markets, yet public equity vehicles trading...

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