LEAVE US YOUR MESSAGE
contact us

Hi! Please leave us your message or call us at 510-858-1921

Thank you! Your submission has been received!

Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form

13
May
Post Category

🏨 Unified Quantamental Framework for Public & Private Hospitality Investing

Last Updated
I
May 13, 2025

Investment Platform Overview

‍

Public Markets

Bay Street identifies attractive opportunities across listed hospitality companies—including REITs, lodging operators, and related platforms—using a value, momentum, carry, and defensive factor model. Public exposures are hedged with tactical option overlays for downside protection and income optimization.

Private Markets

Across private markets, the platform deploys region-specific strategies into stabilized operating hotels, brand repositioning developments, joint ventures with operators, and minority stakes in seasoned hotel platforms. Each private investment is calibrated to a global public-private relative value lens.

‍

The Bay Street Formulaic System

Key Proprietary Metrics:

  • Adjusted Hospitality Alpha (AHA): Measures alpha net of illiquidity premiums derived from liquidity stress (LSD), FX volatility, and repatriation risks.
  • Bay Score: Composite investment attractiveness rating (0-100) integrating IRR, ESG alignment, volatility, and strategic positioning.
  • Bay Adjusted Sharpe (BAS): Risk-adjusted alpha that corrects for idiosyncratic volatility.
  • Liquidity Stress Delta (LSD): Quantifies IRR drag due to delayed exits.

Normalization & Forecasting Enhancements:

Inputs such as RevPAR and occupancy rates are adjusted using CoStar submarket forecasts, weighted by demand sufficiency levels and volatility bands. Forecast Confidence Scores flag variables derived from modeled (non-observed) data.

‍

Public-Private Equivalency Engine

Bay Street uses a unified mapping system to normalize metrics:

Public ProxyPrivate EquivalentP/FFOCap Rate vs. Stabilized NOIEV/EBITDATotal Enterprise Value / Normalized Asset NOIDividend YieldCoC Return (Stabilized Yield)ROICReturn on CostDebt/EquityLoan-to-Value (LTV) or DSCR

This engine supports seamless relative value analysis between REITs and private assets.

‍

Portfolio Construction & Optimization

Bay Street’s Streamlit Optimizer maximizes utility:

Constraints:

  • Max 10% per position
  • Max 30% per region
  • Minimum weighted Bay Score of 70+
  • Volatility and liquidity stress caps

Historical simulations and backtesting use time-weighted returns anchored to benchmarks like MSCI GPFI, STR Global RevPAR Index, and NCREIF Hotel Index.

‍

Legal, Regulatory & Tax Structuring

Fund Vehicles:

  • Delaware LP for U.S. taxable investors
  • Singapore VCC for APAC-focused allocations
  • Portugal Sub-fund for Golden Visa investors
  • India AIF Level II for local Indian investments

Tax Strategies:

  • Portfolio interest deductibility (U.S.)
  • Double tax treaty access (Singapore)
  • Blocker and feeder entity architecture for GP-led continuation vehicles

Exit Readiness:

  • Redemption waterfalls based on quarterly LSD recalibration
  • Public market comparables used for fair market valuations

‍

Risk Modeling: Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Sensitivity

Bay Street's Geopolitical Drag (G-Score) metric adjusts exit and FX assumptions using:

This drag is integrated into AHA and IRR sensitivity bands.

‍

Continuous Monitoring & Attribution

Post-investment, Bay Street re-rates assets quarterly:

  • IRR Drift Index: Captures deviation from original underwriting.
  • Live Bay Score Delta: Tracks score movement based on asset fundamentals.
  • Tracking Error Attribution: Breaks down sources of performance relative to benchmark expectations.

Drift projections use CoStar Method-flagged data and multiple macro scenarios.

‍

Conclusion: Institutional-Grade Hospitality Investing

Bay Street Hospitality’s Unified Quantamental Framework transforms fragmented public and private hospitality market data into an integrated, risk-calibrated investment engine. Every deployment decision is stress-tested against liquidity constraints, volatility realities, and macro regime shifts—offering institutional allocators a transparent, data-driven path to global hospitality exposure.

‍

Benchmark Integration Summary

Bay Street’s system aligns with:

  • STR Global RevPAR (TRI-based)
  • CoStar Asset-Level Analytics (Forecast-tagged)
  • NCREIF ODCE (Time-weighted returns)
  • Cambridge PE Hotel Index (Private fund benchmarking)
  • FTSE Nareit Lodging (Public REIT comparables)
  • S&P Global Hotels (Global public equities)

Illiquidity premiums and drift corrections are recalibrated quarterly to ensure enduring risk realism.

‍

...

Latest posts
13
Jun
Quantamental Hospitality Investing
Seizing Opportunity Amid Uncertainty in the Hospitality Sector
June 13, 2025

At the 2025 NYU International Hospitality Investment Forum, a clear narrative emerged from global hotel brand leaders: while macroeconomic clouds loom and deal volumes remain subdued, long-term investors with conviction will find compelling opportunities—especially in conversions, lifestyle assets, and differentiated experiences.

Continue Reading
12
Jun
Quantamental Hospitality Investing
Sleeping on Singapore: Why the Smartest Hospitality Capital Is Heading to the Lion City
June 12, 2025

While everyone's chasing "emerging markets," they're missing one of Asia's most compelling investment stories happening right under their noses.

Continue Reading
12
Jun
Quantamental Hospitality Investing
SBA 504 Loans: A Quantamental Perspective on Financing Hospitality Ventures
June 12, 2025

The SBA 504 loan program offers a compelling financing solution for hospitality entrepreneurs, providing long-term, fixed-rate loans with low down payments. Designed to support small businesses in acquiring fixed assets, such as real estate and equipment, the program is particularly advantageous for capital-intensive industries like hospitality.

Continue Reading

Unlock the Playbook

Download the Quantamental Approach to Investor Protection, Alignment & Alpha Creation Playbook
Thank you!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Are you an allocator or reporter exploring deal structuring in hospitality?
Request a 30-minute strategy briefing
Get in touch