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13
May

🏨 Unified Quantamental Framework for Public & Private Hospitality Investing

Last Updated
I
May 13, 2025

Investment Platform Overview

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Public Markets

Bay Street identifies attractive opportunities across listed hospitality companies—including REITs, lodging operators, and related platforms—using a value, momentum, carry, and defensive factor model. Public exposures are hedged with tactical option overlays for downside protection and income optimization.

Private Markets

Across private markets, the platform deploys region-specific strategies into stabilized operating hotels, brand repositioning developments, joint ventures with operators, and minority stakes in seasoned hotel platforms. Each private investment is calibrated to a global public-private relative value lens.

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The Bay Street Formulaic System

Key Proprietary Metrics:

  • Adjusted Hospitality Alpha (AHA): Measures alpha net of illiquidity premiums derived from liquidity stress (LSD), FX volatility, and repatriation risks.
  • Bay Score: Composite investment attractiveness rating (0-100) integrating IRR, ESG alignment, volatility, and strategic positioning.
  • Bay Adjusted Sharpe (BAS): Risk-adjusted alpha that corrects for idiosyncratic volatility.
  • Liquidity Stress Delta (LSD): Quantifies IRR drag due to delayed exits.

Normalization & Forecasting Enhancements:

Inputs such as RevPAR and occupancy rates are adjusted using CoStar submarket forecasts, weighted by demand sufficiency levels and volatility bands. Forecast Confidence Scores flag variables derived from modeled (non-observed) data.

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Public-Private Equivalency Engine

Bay Street uses a unified mapping system to normalize metrics:

Public ProxyPrivate EquivalentP/FFOCap Rate vs. Stabilized NOIEV/EBITDATotal Enterprise Value / Normalized Asset NOIDividend YieldCoC Return (Stabilized Yield)ROICReturn on CostDebt/EquityLoan-to-Value (LTV) or DSCR

This engine supports seamless relative value analysis between REITs and private assets.

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Portfolio Construction & Optimization

Bay Street’s Streamlit Optimizer maximizes utility:

Constraints:

  • Max 10% per position
  • Max 30% per region
  • Minimum weighted Bay Score of 70+
  • Volatility and liquidity stress caps

Historical simulations and backtesting use time-weighted returns anchored to benchmarks like MSCI GPFI, STR Global RevPAR Index, and NCREIF Hotel Index.

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Legal, Regulatory & Tax Structuring

Fund Vehicles:

  • Delaware LP for U.S. taxable investors
  • Singapore VCC for APAC-focused allocations
  • Portugal Sub-fund for Golden Visa investors
  • India AIF Level II for local Indian investments

Tax Strategies:

  • Portfolio interest deductibility (U.S.)
  • Double tax treaty access (Singapore)
  • Blocker and feeder entity architecture for GP-led continuation vehicles

Exit Readiness:

  • Redemption waterfalls based on quarterly LSD recalibration
  • Public market comparables used for fair market valuations

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Risk Modeling: Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Sensitivity

Bay Street's Geopolitical Drag (G-Score) metric adjusts exit and FX assumptions using:

This drag is integrated into AHA and IRR sensitivity bands.

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Continuous Monitoring & Attribution

Post-investment, Bay Street re-rates assets quarterly:

  • IRR Drift Index: Captures deviation from original underwriting.
  • Live Bay Score Delta: Tracks score movement based on asset fundamentals.
  • Tracking Error Attribution: Breaks down sources of performance relative to benchmark expectations.

Drift projections use CoStar Method-flagged data and multiple macro scenarios.

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Conclusion: Institutional-Grade Hospitality Investing

Bay Street Hospitality’s Unified Quantamental Framework transforms fragmented public and private hospitality market data into an integrated, risk-calibrated investment engine. Every deployment decision is stress-tested against liquidity constraints, volatility realities, and macro regime shifts—offering institutional allocators a transparent, data-driven path to global hospitality exposure.

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Benchmark Integration Summary

Bay Street’s system aligns with:

  • STR Global RevPAR (TRI-based)
  • CoStar Asset-Level Analytics (Forecast-tagged)
  • NCREIF ODCE (Time-weighted returns)
  • Cambridge PE Hotel Index (Private fund benchmarking)
  • FTSE Nareit Lodging (Public REIT comparables)
  • S&P Global Hotels (Global public equities)

Illiquidity premiums and drift corrections are recalibrated quarterly to ensure enduring risk realism.

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...

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