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22
Oct

Scarcity as Moat: Why Institutional Capital Is Entering the Ultraluхury Hotel Space

Last Updated
I
October 22, 2025

“Scarcity is the only moat left. You can always build another tower. You cannot build another clifftop,” Brown said, pointing to deals like the record-breaking valuation of the Inn at Little Washington expansion and the ongoing equity raise for One&Only Hudson Valley.

Bay Street’s Quantamental Lens

From Bay Street’s vantage point, this is a textbook example of what our Modular Moats framework describes as a scarcity-driven moat — assets where regulatory, geographic, and cultural barriers prevent replication . When such assets are run through the Bay Score funnel — from raw IRR to liquidity stress, macro overlays, and illiquidity premiums  — they consistently show lower volatility and higher resilience than their size would suggest.

The challenge, however, is matching investment horizon to asset DNA. Family offices can hold indefinitely, while institutional LPs face IRR clocks and exit windows. As Brown notes, the experiment will only work if institutions adopt 8–12 year+ horizons, effectively mimicking family behavior. Otherwise, bidding up multiples without matching stewardship discipline risks eroding the very moat they covet.

Cultural Capital as Differentiator

In recent Bay Street meetings with prominent art families in Europe and Asia, a consistent theme has emerged: willingness to license cultural assets only to operators who understand preservation as well as monetization. As Art Collecting Today reminds us, “ownership confers responsibility to safeguard value beyond price.” Likewise, Management of Art Galleries stresses that “curation without context diminishes both legacy and yield.”

These insights are directly transferable to ultraluxury hospitality. Institutions tempted to “financialize” scarce assets must instead embrace the cultural alpha embedded in them — working with the “artist-operators” (Brown’s Picassos) who created and sustained them. Co-investment models where operators keep a meaningful stake, akin to an artist retaining control of a body of work, can balance liquidity needs with continuity of vision.

The Strategic Fork

For LPs, the Bay Street Quantamental framework highlights two diverging paths:

  • Flexibility-focused portfolios, chasing liquidity and interim IRRs, which will continue to struggle to access these assets.
  • Fragility-resistant portfolios, willing to underwrite long-duration scarcity with cultural alignment, which stand to generate sustainable alpha above commoditized luxury.

The lesson is clear: in ultraluxury, scarcity is not to be “pimped out,” as Brown bluntly puts it, but to be curated, preserved, and leveraged. Institutions entering this space must learn from family offices and from the art world itself — that true returns lie not in scale, but in stewardship.

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