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13
May
Post Category

🏨 Bay Street Hospitality Index: A Quantamental Benchmark for Public & Private Hospitality Investments

Last Updated
I
May 13, 2025

Methodology: Constructing the BSHI

The BSHI is a carefully weighted composite of eight institutional-grade benchmarks, chosen to ensure full-cycle, global coverage:

  • Private Hotel Metrics: STR HOST Reports and CoStar Hotel Analytics
  • Private Equity Returns: Cambridge Global Private Equity Index
  • Core/Core+ Real Estate: NCREIF ODCE and MSCI GPFI Indices
  • Public Market Hospitality: FTSE Nareit Lodging/Resorts and S&P Global Hotels Index
  • Liquidity Adjustment: Dynamic Illiquidity Premium (1–7.5%), flexed quarterly based on LSD and FX volatility

Each index is normalized to reflect liquidity, submarket volatility, and time-weighted return adjustments, ensuring comparability across public equities, private equity, direct hotel ownership, and hybrid structures.

Strategic Advantages for LPs

Quantamental Symmetry: The BSHI enables LPs to evaluate REITs, private hotel developments, and operator JVs through a unified, risk-calibrated lens.

Transparency in Attribution: Each investment’s performance is decomposed relative to BSHI components, allowing LPs to pinpoint alpha sources across geography, operator, leverage, and asset lifecycle.

Global Relevance: Dynamic regional adjustments reflect tourism shocks, FX risk, capital market volatility, and policy shifts across the Americas, Europe, ASEAN, APAC ex-ASEAN, and Middle East.

Illiquidity Calibration: Bay Street's modeling dynamically adds or removes premium spreads based on liquidity stress delta (LSD), repatriation constraints, and regional capital controls.

Applications Across the Investment Lifecycle

Deal Origination: Bay Score and AHA screening integrate BSHI drift models to calibrate entry risk and return.

IC Memos: Public and private opportunities benchmarked against BSHI relative scores, validating assumptions on RevPAR, NOI growth, and terminal cap rates.

Asset Management: Quarterly re-rating of private assets using forward-looking Bay Score trajectories, powered by CoStar submarket forecasting and STR occupancy momentum bands.

Exit Planning: Benchmarking IRR drift and Liquidity Stress Delta against updated public REIT performance and sector ETF flows to optimize sale timing.

Forecasting & Model Enhancements

Forecast Model Tags: All BSHI-modeled outputs are flagged with CoStar Method Tags and graded for Forecast Confidence based on STR sufficiency protocols and Oxford Economics overlays.

Liquidity Stress Calibration: Exit timing penalties are dynamically modeled using live Bay Score drift, macro volatility, and FX-adjusted hold duration extensions.

Geopolitical Sensitivity Scoring: All regional BSHI bands are flexed based on 30-day FX volatility vs. USD, local inflation differentials, and binary policy change datasets (e.g., visa restrictions, repatriation laws).

Final Takeaways for Allocators

  • One Index for All Hospitality Assets: Whether public or private, all deals are scored relative to a single institutional benchmark.
  • Forward-Looking, Not Backward-Looking: BSHI dynamically recalibrates each quarter to reflect live economic, operating, and liquidity conditions.
  • Transparency Over Intuition: Every Bay Score, AHA, BAS, and IRR forecast used in underwriting is traceable to BSHI component logic.
  • Macro-Sensitive Portfolio Construction: Rebalancing of allocations is informed by BSHI regional volatility and macro liquidity signals.

Copyright Notice and Legal Disclaimer

The materials provided by Bay Street Hospitality Fund I GP LLC (“Bay Street Hospitality”) are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, real estate asset, financial product, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, dissemination, or use of these materials in whole or in part is strictly prohibited.

© 2025 Bay Street Hospitality Fund I GP LLC. All rights reserved.

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