LEAVE US YOUR MESSAGE
contact us

Hi! Please leave us your message or call us at 510-858-1921

Thank you! Your submission has been received!

Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form

1
Jul

Bay Street on the Rise of SM Hotels: Quantamental Insights into the Philippines’ Hospitality Growth Story

Last Updated
I
July 1, 2025

Bay Street on the Caribbean’s Ascent: From Boutique Hospitality to Climate Capitalism and Creative Economies

As we close the second quarter of 2025, a distinct pattern is emerging across Bay Street Hospitality’s regional analysis of the Caribbean: a convergence of luxury hospitality investment, sovereign-led sustainability strategies, and overlooked creative infrastructure. What was once seen as an exotic, opaque market is revealing itself to be a high-momentum frontier—provided investors adopt the right risk lens, local structuring partners, and cultural fluency.

Hyatt’s Bet on Boutique in Turks & Caicos: The Shift Toward Intimate Luxury

The long-awaited Andaz Turks & Caicos—Hyatt’s first foray into the Caribbean under its boutique Andaz flag—is poised to open in early 2026. This isn’t just another resort on Grace Bay Beach. It’s a signal. With only 59 rooms and 74 branded residences, it embraces the post-COVID ethos of “quiet luxury” and space over spectacle. As the luxury hotel market in Turks & Caicos heats up, with peers like Ritz-Carlton and Waldorf Astoria laying anchor, the Andaz positions itself on intimacy and personalization over footprint.

From a quantamental perspective, this validates one of Bay Street’s core metrics: residency-luxury yield compression. As inventory tightens and loyalty programs finally reach these islands, the unit economics of limited-key hotels outpace large-scale developments—particularly when tied to branded residences.

This theme aligns with the changing tastes of UHNW travelers who, as Art Collecting Today describes, “prefer access to intimacy over ownership of opulence.” It’s also why Bay Street has been in ongoing dialogue with prominent art families in São Paulo and Naples about licensing bespoke art collections to operators like Andaz, ensuring that guests’ first impression is not merely design, but curation.

Rise Guyana: Capital Flows Where Governance Grows

Few markets exemplify structural acceleration like Guyana. Once dismissed as peripheral, it is now home to the first institutional real estate and infrastructure fund in the country’s history: Rise Guyana’s USD $29M vehicle.

With GDP powered by ExxonMobil’s Stabroek Block and Guyana’s oil production approaching a record low breakeven of $30/barrel, the opportunity is no longer hypothetical. And yet the pivot is not just petro. Rise Guyana’s barbell strategy blends high-yield infrastructure like modular housing and hotels near Ogle Airport with private aviation hubs and multifamily housing in boomtown corridors.

Critically, Rise Guyana isn’t positioning itself as a commodity proxy. Its founders—including former Cabot Saint Lucia CEO Kristine Thompson—are targeting an IRR of 30% by structuring the fund with institutional governance, transparency, and pipeline readiness. This mirrors Bay Street’s internal criteria for Emerging Market Execution Confidence, which ranks higher than volatility-adjusted returns in our model.

It’s also the reason we’ve initiated exploratory sessions with Rise Guyana to co-invest in hospitality-adjacent real estate. We believe branded luxury residences attached to Marriott’s dual-flag concept could serve as cultural hubs, where art families can embed site-specific installations—leveraging “cultural permanence” as both a brand moat and guest experience differentiator.

Apple Buys Guyanese Carbon Credits: Climate Capitalism Meets Hospitality Real Estate

Apple’s recent acquisition and retirement of 100,000 carbon credits from Guyana under the ART framework isn’t merely a sustainability PR move—it’s a step toward commoditizing conservation. With a $1.5M price tag, it offers precedent for how carbon can be priced into luxury resort development ROI.

Bay Street has long advocated for carbon-forward hospitality underwriting, where design choices and supply chain sourcing allow properties to monetize forest-adjacent land through REDD+ structures. With Apple following Hess Corporation’s $750M lead, we’re seeing the early formation of a voluntary market that can anchor long-duration capital.

Art collecting, as Management of Art Galleries notes, has always been about provenance. “Where a piece has lived speaks to its value.” The same now applies to resorts. If a beachfront hotel can fund mangrove restoration on one parcel while generating carbon credits from another, the guest journey becomes an investment in preservation—not just leisure.

This creates a unique overlay for our art partnerships. Imagine suites with embedded QR codes linking works on the wall to CO₂ offsets funded through the guest’s stay. Art meets offset. Luxury meets legacy.

U.S. Lenders Hesitate, Caribbean Adapts: The Execution Gap

Despite massive demand and pricing momentum, U.S. institutional lenders still largely sideline Caribbean projects. The reasons—poor land titling, opaque permitting, and legal fragmentation—are not new. But the solutions are finally becoming executable.

Bay Street is actively building a Data Room-Ready Caribbean Framework, modeled on investor-grade workflows we use for our private hotel group underwriting. That means legal clearances, digitized permitting timelines, ESG risk profiles, and compliance-aligned capital stack structures. Our thesis: the exotic becomes investable once the friction is priced out.

As one investor told News Americas: “The region doesn’t need perfect systems, just predictable entry and enforceable rights.” Bay Street agrees. It’s why we’re piloting a land-title mapping initiative in Barbados and leveraging the IFC’s political risk insurance on select deals in the Eastern Caribbean.

Lights, Camera, Incentives: The Caribbean’s Missed Film Economy

Finally, we turn to the $2 billion+ Caribbean film economy—a market almost entirely dependent on tax incentives and co-production treaties. While the Dominican Republic and Trinidad lead with credits and rebates, most countries—including Barbados and Antigua—lack the legal scaffolding to attract Netflix-caliber productions.

Why does this matter to hospitality investors?

Because branded hotels are increasingly hosting film crews, licensing location rights, or integrating streaming tie-ins to drive off-season occupancy. Film tax incentives don’t just bring movies—they bring midweek RevPAR.

Bay Street has been in talks with a family foundation in Florence seeking to digitize its Renaissance archive through filmed installations in hotel lobbies. If the host property qualifies for film tax rebates, the content creation becomes self-funding, while deepening the asset’s cultural gravity.

Conclusion: The Caribbean as a Convergent Frontier

From Grace Bay to Georgetown, the Caribbean is not a story of isolated deals—it is a case study in convergent transformation. Hospitality, infrastructure, conservation, and culture are all seeking capital—and increasingly, seeking each other.

Bay Street’s quantamental approach is built for this exact moment: a fusion of macro data and on-the-ground diligence, paired with institutional structuring and cultural context. And at the center of it all lies a question every art collector understands:

“What story does this asset tell?”

In the Caribbean, it’s a story still being written. But for those with the right lens, the plot is compelling—and the upside extraordinary.

...

Latest posts
15
Aug
Quantamental Hospitality Investing
Resilience Dominates Hospitality Investment Strategy — A Quantamental View on Risk, Climate, and Cultural Capital
August 15, 2025

The hospitality investment narrative in mid-2025 is increasingly framed by a single word: resilience. While sector headlines often spotlight RevPAR growth or brand expansions, the deeper strategic conversations among asset managers and institutional investors are turning toward disaster-preparedness and systemic risk management. This isn’t just an operational issue — it’s a capital allocation reality.

Continue Reading
14
Aug
Quantamental Hospitality Investing
Capex in 2025 — Why Hotel Investors Face a “Spend or Stagnate” Moment
August 14, 2025

The latest discussions around hotel capital expenditures (capex) underscore a hard truth: 2025 is no longer an environment where owners can “maintain” their way into competitiveness. The traditional 4% of gross annual revenue earmarked for improvements — plus 4–5% in reserves for FF&E (furniture, fixtures, and equipment) — is no longer enough to keep up with inflation, construction costs, and shifting guest expectations.

Continue Reading
11
Aug
Quantamental Hospitality Investing
U.S. Hotels Enter a New Cycle — Lessons from Art Markets on Navigating Flat Demand
August 11, 2025

The latest CoStar and Tourism Economics data presented at the 2025 Hotel Data Conference confirms what many U.S. hoteliers have been feeling since early spring — the post-pandemic recovery is over, and a new, more cautious lodging cycle has begun. STR’s Amanda Hite didn’t mince words when she revealed that full-year RevPAR projections for 2025 had shifted from an expected +1.8% growth in January to –0.1%. The downgrade is not just a numerical adjustment; it’s a signal that macro headwinds, shifting demand profiles, and consumer caution are reshaping the strategic landscape for U.S. hospitality.

Continue Reading

Unlock the Playbook

Download the Quantamental Approach to Investor Protection, Alignment & Alpha Creation Playbook
Thank you!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Are you an allocator or reporter exploring deal structuring in hospitality?
Request a 30-minute strategy briefing
Get in touch